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Date Posted:
Wednesday November 15, 2000 09:57:58 PM
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This article hit a sympathetic chord since I buy most of the author's arguments.However, at this point we are at a stalemate in the Presidential elections that seems to be hinging on differnt understandings of uncertainties and the measurement process in general.As an experimental physicist, I would order either five machine counts with different settings of the thresholds of the optical readers or five hand counts, with different people counting the votes each time! Then, I would take the average of these five (or ten?) measurements and assuning a normal distribution of errors would make a probabilistic statement of which candidate won the election! Note that the result might be that we cannot tell with any degree of confidence, in which case I would suggest the flipping of a fair coin (chosen by Bush, flipped by Gore, or vice-versa!) It would have less divisive effects and less cost than all the legal challenges, after all we are not trying to measure the intention of all the hearts and minds of all the voters ( -- who are mainly undecided most of the time) but to measure the objective act of election ballotting with all its errors!
Steve Torok okhë0¿þ بþ 8f H¿§c 'ù0¿þ þ 8f H¿§d Ô(ù °þ 8f H¿§¿ t\ù Ðþ 8f H¿§ D]ù ¿þ ðþ 8f H¿§¿ ú`þ H¿§ ¤Ef H¿§ ¬ÔãðAþ H¿§ ¤Ef H¿§ ¬'å BþthetH¿§ ¤Ef H¿§ ¿tú0µþ theH¿§ ¤Ef H¿§ lpú8|þØþH¿§ ¤Ef H¿§ tnúè{þmateH¿§ ¤Ef H¿§ hú ns tH¿§ ¤Ef H¿§K $ôà¿þ8þH¿§ ¤Ef H¿§I ôp¿þaintpþand the hþurement tþess þ¿þal.As an¿þerimenta¿þ°þist,¤þould ord°þither fiÐþachine cÈþs with dÔþrentðþàþs of theìþesholds øþþpticþeaders oþve hand 0þts, with(þferent p4þe coPþ@þhe votesLþh time! Xþpþwouldþke the apþge of thþfive (or¿þ?) measu¿þnts °þ þning a n¬þl distri¸þÐþf erÄþ would mÐþa probabðþtic statèþt of whiôþandiþ þ the ele þn! Note þ0þ res$þmight be0þt we canPþtell witHþy degreeTþconfpþ`þin whichlþe I woulxþþt th¿þipping oþfair coi°þhosen by¨þh, flipp´þy GoÐþÀþice-versÌþIt wouldØþðþss däþive effeðþand lessþt than aþhe legalþllen0þ þer all w,þe not tr8þPþmeasDþthe intePþn of allpþ hearts hþmindH tþ artþ¿þ a sympa¿þic chord¿þ°þ buy¤þt of the°þhor's arÐþnts.HoweÈþ at thisÔþnt wðþàþ a staleìþ in the øþþtialþctions tþ 0þ¿ , þ(þÈ¿,þ4þht,Pþ@þf unHþLþies TþXþpþ`þdþproclþpþenerxþþ exp¿þ¿þl phþ¿þ I w°þ þer e¨þ¬þve m´þ¸þÐþÀþÄþiffeÌþÐþtingØþðþ thräþèþof tðþôþal rþ þr fiþ þcounþþ0þ þ$þeopl,þ0þng t8þPþ eacDþHþThenPþTþd tapþ`þverahþlþese tþxþþ¿þ¿þreme¿þþassu¿þ°þorma¤þ¨þbuti°þ´þrorsÐþÀþake ÈþÌþilisÔþØþðþàþäþch cìþðþ wonøþ þctio þ þthat þ þult 0 þ þ tha( þ, þnot 4 þ8 þP þ@ þD þ of L þP þce, X þp þ casd þh þd sup þt þe fl þ¿ þf a ¿ þ¿ þn (c¿ þ¿ þ° þ þ¤ þed b¬ þ° þor v¸ þÐ þa!) Ä þÈ þ havÐ þÔ þivisð þà þcts è þì þ cosô þø þ þ þ þ cha þ þ aft þ0 þe ar$ þ( þying0 þ4 þure P þ@ þntioH þL þ theT þX þp þ` þd þ alll þp þers x þ þ are¿ þ¿ þunde þ¿ þst o° þ þme) ¨ þ¬ þeasu´ þ¸ þÐ þÀ þÄ þ of Ì þÐ þ balØ þð þwithä þè þ errð þô þ>Ste þ þ þ þ þ þ0 þ þ$ þ , þ0 þ 8 þP þ D þH þ P þT þ p þ` þ h þl þ t þx þ þ¿ þ¿ þ ¿ þ þ ¿ þ° þ ¤ þ¨ þ ° þ´ þ Ð þÀ þ È þÌ þ Ô þØ þð þà þä þ ì þð þ ø þ þ þ þ þ þ 0 þ þ ( þ, þ 4 þ8 þP þ@ þD þ L þP þ X þp þ d þh þ p þt þ þ¿ þ ¿ þ¿ þ ¿ þ¿ þ° þ þ¤ þ ¬ þ° þ ¸ þÐ þ Ä þÈ þ Ð þÔ þ ð þà þ è þì þ ô þø þ þ þ þ þ þ þ0 þ $ þ( þ 0 þ4 þ P þ@ þ H þL þ T þX þp þ` þd þ l þp þ x þ þ ¿ þ¿ þ þ¿ þ ° þ þ ¨ þ¬ þ ´ þ¸ þÐ þÀ þÄ þ Ì þÐ þ Ø þð þ ä þè þ ð þô þ !þ !þ !þ !þ !þ!þ0!þ !þ$!þ ,!þ0!þ 8!þ D!þH!þ P!þT!þ \!þ`!þ h!þ t!þP!ª¿Qþ¾þ¿ This article hit a sympathetic chord since I buy most of the author's arguments.However, at this point we are at a stalemate in the Presidential elections that seems to be hinging on differnt understandings of uncertainties and the measurement process in general.As an experimental physicist, I would order either five machine counts with different settings of the thresholds of the optical readers or five hand counts, with different people counting the votes each time! Then, I would take the average of these five (or ten?) measurements and assuning a normal distribution of errors would make a probabilistic statement of which candidate won the election! Note that the result might be that we cannot tell with any degree of confidence, in which case I would suggest the flipping of a fair coin (chosen by Bush, flipped by Gore, or vice-versa!) It would have less divisive effects and less cost than all the legal challenges, after all we are not trying to measure the intention of all the hearts and minds of all the voters ( -- who are mainly undecided most of the time) but to measure the objective act of election ballotting with all its errors!
Steve Torok ¿,,&þ,&þ¿,8&þ8&þht,D&þ È¿,P&þ buy mos\&þ the auth&þs argumet&þHowever,¿&þthis poi¿&þe are at¿&þtalemate¤&þthe Pres°&þtial ele¼&þns that È&þs to be Ô&þing on dà&þrnt undeì&þndings oø&þcertaint'þand the 'þurement 'þess in g('þal.As an4'þerimenta@'þysicist,L'þould ordX'þither fid'þachine cp'þs with d|'þrent set¿'þs of the¿'þesholds 'þhe optic¬'þeaders o¸'þve hand Ä'þts, withÐ'þferent pÜ'þe countiè'þhe votesô'þh time! (þ, I woul (þ¿ This(þicle hit$(þympathet0(þhord sin<(þ buy mosH(þ the autT(þs argume`(þHowever,l(þthis poix(þe are at¿(þtalemate(þthe Pres¿(þtial ele¨(þns that ´(þs to be À(þing on dÌ(þrnt undeØ(þndings oä(þcertaintð(þand the ü(þurement )þess in g)þal.As an )þerimenta,)þysicist,8)þould ordD)þither fiP)þachine c\)þs with dh)þrent sett)þs of the¿)þesholds ¿)þhe optic¿)þeaders o¤)þve hand °)þts, with¼)þferent pÈ)þe countiÔ)þhe votesà)þh time! ì)þ, I woulø)þke the a*þge of th*þfive *þ article(*þ a sympa4*þic chord@*þce I buyL*þt of theX*þhor's ard*þnts.Howep*þ at this|*þnt we ar¿*þ a stale¿*þ in the *þidential¬*þctions t¸*þseems toÄ*þhinging Ð*þiffernt Ü*þrstandinè*þf uncertô*þies and +þmeasurem +þprocess +þeneral.A$+þ experim0+þl physic<+þ I wouldH+þer eitheT+þve machi`+þounts wil+þifferentx+þtings of¿+þ thresho+þof the o¿+þal reade¨+þr five h´+þcounts, À+þ differeÌ+þeople coØ+þng the vä+þ each tið+þThen, I ü+þd take t,þverage o,þese five ,þ ten?) m,,þrements 8,þassuningD,þormal diP,þbution o\,þrors wouh,þake a prt,þilistic ¿,þement of¿,þch candi¿,þ won the¤,þction! N°,þthat the¼,þult mighÈ,þ that weÔ,þnot tellà,þh any deì,þ of confø,þce, in w-þ case I -þd sugges -þe flippi(-þf a fair4-þn (chose@-þ Bush, fL-þed by GoX-þor vice-d-þa!) It wp-þ have le|-þivisive ¿-þcts and ¿-þ cost th -þll the l¬-þ challen¸-þ after aÄ-þe are noÐ-þying to Ü-þure the è-þntion ofô-þ the hea .þand mind .þ all the.þers ( --$.þ are mai0.þundecide<.þst of thH.þme) but T.þeasure t`.þbjectivel.þ of elecx.þ ballott¿.þwith all.þ errors!¿.þ>Steve T¨.þ ICIST,´.þOULD ORDÀ.þITHER FIÌ.þACHINE CØ.þS WITH Dä.þRENT SETð.þS OF THEü.þESHOLDS /þHE OPTIC/þEADERS O /þVE HAND ,/þTS, WITH8/þFERENT PD/þE COUNTIP/þHE VOTES\/þH TIME! h/þ, I WOULt/þKE THE A¿/þGE OF TH¿/þFIVE (OR¿/þ?) MEASU¤/þNTS AND °/þNING A N¼/þL DISTRIÈ/þON OF ERÔ/þ WOULD Mà/þA PROBABì/þTIC STATø/þT OF WHI0þANDIDATE0þ THE ELE 0þN! NOTE (0þ THE RES40þMIGHT BE@0þT WE CANL0þTELL WITX0þY DEGREEd0þCONFIDENp0þIN WHICH|0þE I WOUL¿0þGGEST TH¿0þIPPING O 0þFAIR COI¬0þHOSEN BY¸0þH, FLIPPÄ0þY GORE, Ð0þICE-VERSÜ0þIT WOULDè0þE LESS Dô0þIVE EFFE 1þAND LESS 1þT THAN A1þHE LEGAL$1þLLENGES,01þER ALL W<1þE NOT TRH1þ TO MEAST1þTHE INTE`1þN OF ALLl1þ HEARTS x1þMINDS OF¿1þ THE VOT1þ( -- WHO¿1þ MAINLY ¨1þCIDED MO´1þF THE TIÀ1þBUT TO MÌ1þRE THE OØ1þTIVE ACTä1þELECTIONð1þLOTTING ü1þ ALL ITS2þORS!
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